projects

Celebrating probabilistic lives saved

In the aftermath of a disaster, news and research attention is focused almost entirely on catastrophic narratives and the various drivers that may have led to the disaster. Learning from failure is essential to preventing future disasters. In this project, we demonstrate how to celebrate successes through downward counterfactual analysis.

Papers, spotlights, and more

Peer-reviewed papers

  • Rabonza, Maricar L., Yolanda C. Lin, and David Lallemant, 2022. "Learning from success, not catastrophe: using counterfactual analysis to highlight successful disaster risk reduction interventions." Frontiers in Earth Science. 10, 847196. Available here.

  • Lallemant, David, Maricar Rabonza, Yolanda C. Lin, Sanjana Tadepalli, Dennis Wagenaar, Michele Nguyen, Jeanette Choong, et al. 2022. “Shedding Light on Avoided Disasters: Measuring the Invisible Benefits of Disaster Risk Management Using Probabilistic Counterfactual Analysis.” Global Assessment Report Contributing Paper. United Nations. Available here.

  • Rabonza, Maricar L., Yolanda C. Lin, and David Lallemant. 2020. “Celebrating Successful Earthquake Risk Reduction Through Counterfactual Probabilistic Analysis.” at the 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Sendai, Japan.

Presentations at

  • Lin, Yolanda C., Maricar L. Rabonza, and David Lallemant. “Uncovering Invisible Benefits of Disaster Risk Management through Counterfactual Risk Analysis,” Natural Hazards Workshop and Researchers Meeting, July 11-15, 2021.

  • Lin, Yolanda C. “Pathways to effective earthquake scenarios in uncertain contexts.” USGS Earthquake Science Center Seminar Series. November 10, 2021. View seminar recording here.

  • Rabonza, Maricar L., Yolanda C. Lin, and David Lallemant. 2020. “Celebrating Successful Earthquake Risk Reduction Through Counterfactual Probabilistic Analysis.” at the 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Sendai, Japan.

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